King Abdullah’s Fear

People were surprised at the revelation in Wikileaks documents that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia fears / hates Iran more than Israel. This is clearly surprising. Why could this be?

SA and Iran are rivals in Iraq. SA throws bunch of money around in Iraq to support Sunni’s, obviously Iran does the same for Shias. But this is not enough for Abdullah’s fear.

Nuclear weapons? Nah. Everyone knows Iran will not develop nuclear weapons. According to Bruce de Masquita, a political scientist who uses Game Theory to predict future events, Iran will develop weapon grade nuclear fuel but not weapons. Weapon grade fuel option is the Nash Equilibrium of this issue; and it makes perfect sense. Noone in the region wants nuclear weapons, and US, EU certainly do not. Then the only middle way to satisfy Iran’s national pride and at the time not having weapons, is the fuel option.

A potential reason or Abdullah’s fear might be that the ruling class in Saudi Arabia is having a crisis of legitimacy. They are finding it increasingly hard to maintain status quo, a young, populous Arab generation is coming of age, this new generation criticizes, discusses everything and everyone, in places like Dubai, which is fast becoming a hub for a potential Arabian Renaissance.

Abdullah needs an enemy.

In the past this enemy / outsider usually was Turkey. However because of Turkey’s “zero problem” policy with her neighbours, she is no good for Abdullah. Then the next logical choice is Iran. Let’s not forget, Saudi Arabia depends on US military presence to maintain order, therefore an enemy that is suitable for US suits Abdullah’s interests as well.